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Asteroid 101955 Bennu gehört nicht nur zu den Near Earth Objects (NEO), sondern zur Potentially Hazardous Object (PHO) Klasse, die also das ominöse Potential für einen Zusammenprall mit der Erde haben. Wie wahrscheinlich oder unwahrscheinlich das ist, hängt dabei von vielen Faktoren ab. Der Asteroid wurde unlängst von der NASA-Sonde OSIRIS-REx besucht, die demnächst Bodenproben zur Erde zurückbringen wird. Diese Mission hat auch wesentlich verbessserte Bahndaten ermöglicht, mit deren Hilfe immerhin eine Kollision in der näheren Zukunft ausgeschlossen werden kann.
Ephemeris and hazard assessment for near-Earth asteroid (101955) Bennu based on OSIRIS-REx data
Compared to the information available before the OSIRIS-REx mission, the knowledge of the circumstances of the scattering Earth encounter that will occur in 2135 improves by a factor of 20, thus allowing us to rule out many previously possible impact trajectories. However, there remain some impact trajectories compatible with the data. Prior to the spacecraft encounter, the overall impact probability through 2200 was 3.7×10−4 (1 in 2700). As a result of our analysis, the cumulative impact probability through 2300 becomes 5.7×10−4 (1 in 1750) and the most significant individual impact solution is for September 2182, with an impact probability of 3.7×10−4 (1 in 2700). Both Bennu and (29075) 1950 DA have a Palermo scale value of −1.42 and share the distinction as the currently most hazardous object in the asteroid catalog.
Don't worry about Bennu (yet)
Ephemeris and hazard assessment for near-Earth asteroid (101955) Bennu based on OSIRIS-REx data
Compared to the information available before the OSIRIS-REx mission, the knowledge of the circumstances of the scattering Earth encounter that will occur in 2135 improves by a factor of 20, thus allowing us to rule out many previously possible impact trajectories. However, there remain some impact trajectories compatible with the data. Prior to the spacecraft encounter, the overall impact probability through 2200 was 3.7×10−4 (1 in 2700). As a result of our analysis, the cumulative impact probability through 2300 becomes 5.7×10−4 (1 in 1750) and the most significant individual impact solution is for September 2182, with an impact probability of 3.7×10−4 (1 in 2700). Both Bennu and (29075) 1950 DA have a Palermo scale value of −1.42 and share the distinction as the currently most hazardous object in the asteroid catalog.
Don't worry about Bennu (yet)