Nova im Schwan 2022?

[P_E_T_E_R]

KIC 9832227

PREDICTION OF A RED NOVA OUTBURST IN KIC 9832227

Astronomers predict explosion that will change the night sky in 2022

Molnar's prediction is that a binary star (two stars orbiting each other) he is monitoring will merge and explode in 2022, give or take a year; at which time the star will increase its brightness ten thousand fold, becoming one of the brighter stars in the heavens for a time. The star will be visible as part of the constellation Cygnus, and will add a star to the recognizable Northern Cross star pattern.

Molnar and colleagues will be observing KIC 9832227 in the next year over the full range of wavelengths: using the Very Large Array, the Infrared Telescope Facility, and the XMM-Newton spacecraft to study the star's radio, infrared and X-ray emission, respectively.

Molnar says that this is the beginning of a story that will unfold over the next several years, and people of all levels can participate.

"The orbital timing can be checked by amateur astronomers," said Molnar. "It's amazing the equipment amateur astronomers have these days. They can measure the brightness variations with time of this 12th magnitude star as it eclipses and see for themselves if it is continuing on the schedule we are predicting or not."

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S&T

 

[P_E_T_E_R]

Der scheinbar exponentielle Abfall der Transitperiode von KIC 9832227, welcher zur Vorhersage einer Nova in vier Jahren führte, beruhte anscheinend auf fehlerhaften Zeitangaben:

In 2017, the system was predicted to result in a merger in 2022, producing a luminous red nova (LRN) reaching an apparent magnitude of 2. However, a reanalysis of the data in September 2018 revealed that the prediction had been based on a wrongly timed observation, negating the predicted merger.

KIC 9832227: Using Vulcan Data to Negate the 2022 Red Nova Merger Prediction

KIC 9832227 is a contact binary whose 11 hr orbital period is rapidly changing. Based on the apparent exponential decay of its period, the two stars were predicted to merge in early 2022 resulting in a rare red nova outburst.

Fortunately KIC 9832227 was observed in 2003 as part of the NASA Ames pre-Kepler Vulcan Project to search for transiting exoplanets. We find that the Vulcan timing measurement does not agree with the previous exponential decay model ...

The very large disagreement of the Vulcan and NSVS eclipse times with an exponentially decaying model forces us to reject the merger hypothesis.

Team of researchers challenge bold astronomical prediction

 

[P_E_T_E_R]

Typo Throws Off Timing for Expected Binary Star Merger

A fresh look at the data used in a 2017 study shows that one of the cited references had a typo, throwing off the calculations for binary system called KIC 9832227.

Recently, a new team led by graduate student Quentin Socia (San Diego State University) found that the 2004 catalog had different Julian dates listed in the preprint version than the final, published version. Further, the typo in the published version — the date Molnar carefully copied in his 2016 paper — put the star below the local horizon, making it an impossible observation.

Astronomers use the Julian calendar to calculate dates, but each observatory has the choice of using an adjusted Julian date to move the clock forward by 12 hours, making it easier to deal with local time zones. It was this little quirk that threw off the calculations; one version of the paper used the Julian date, while the other used the adjusted Julian date, said Molnar.

 

[Alexander_Funk]

Hi Peter,

also wann genau ist es nun?

Viele Grüße
Alex

 

[CaptainKirk]

Hallo Alex,
so wie es aussieht, fällt die Nova ganz aus. Sieh mal hier im Forum unter Beobachtungen - Fragen... nach, da hat Erik Wischnewski einen Link gesetzt, allerdings auf Englisch. Beim Spektrum Verlag unter Astronomie ist auch ein schöner Artikel neu zu finden.
Viele Grüße Olaf.

 

[P_E_T_E_R]

also wann genau ist es nun?

Das kann man jetzt wirklich nicht sagen. Die Vorhersage von Molnar et al. basierte ja, wie sich nun herausgestellt hat, u.a. ganz wesentlich auf einem irrtümlich um 12 Stunden verschobenen Timing von Messdaten des Northern Sky Variability Survey von 1999/2000. Daraus hatte Molnar durch Vergleich mit späteren Messungen einen rasant beschleunigten Umlauf abgeleitet, welcher in ca. 4 Jahren zu einer Verschmelzung der beiden Komponenten und einer Nova geführt hätte. Seit der Aufdeckung des Irrtums kann davon aber keine Rede mehr sein. Die Umlaufperiode hat sich zwischen 1999/2000 und 2008 eher sogar geringfügig erhöht, und spätere Messdaten ergeben auch keinen klaren Trend. Irgendwann in weiter astronomischer Zukunft wird solch eine Verschmelzung sicher eintreten, aber nicht in absehbarer Zeit.

 

[Lots]

Hi,

die fällt nach SuW 11/18 aus, weil Rechenfehler gefunden wurden. Das Ergebnis konnte von einer andren Gruppe nicht bestätigt werden.

Gruß
Lothar

 

[hans_schneider]

Recently, a new team led by graduate student Quentin Socia (San Diego State University) found that the 2004 catalog had different Julian dates listed in the preprint version than the final, published version. Further, the typo in the published version — the date Molnar carefully copied in his 2016 paper — put the star below the local horizon, making it an impossible observation.

Astronomers use the Julian calendar to calculate dates, but each observatory has the choice of using an adjusted Julian date to move the clock forward by 12 hours, making it easier to deal with local time zones. It was this little quirk that threw off the calculations; one version of the paper used the Julian date, while the other used the adjusted Julian date, said Molnar.

So so, "little quirk". Die Fußangeln bei der Verwendung des Julianischen Datums sind doch hinreichend bekannt; da
kontrolliert man dreimal, mindestens, und wenn es um eine derartige Sensationsnachricht (für die ich sie halte) geht, fünfmal. Aber wenn die Ruhmsucht zuschlägt... Sonstwo stürzen wegen vergleichbarer Fehler Flugzeuge ab.

Hans

 

[Ehemaliges Mitglied 8776]

Moin,

schon etwas peinlich insgesamt und keine Werbung!

CS
Jörg

 

[ThN]

Ja, aber happens!

Thomas