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A Ton of Space Junk Tumbles Unpredictably to Earth Every Week
For now, people are more likely to be struck by lightning than by falling space junk. The only documented case is of an Oklahoma woman who was hit by debris in the 1990s. She survived relatively unharmed.
But those odds are shifting. A study for the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration concluded that by 2035, debris from SpaceX satellites alone could kill or injure someone every two years.
The risk diminishes if satellites burn up in the atmosphere, the study concluded. For a while, SpaceX said that all its returning satellites incinerated. Then, in 2024, a chunk of SpaceX metal was found on a Canadian farm. SpaceX, which previously disagreed with the F.A.A. report, did not respond to questions. The company now says that about 5 percent of the mass of some satellites may not disintegrate.
Governments and companies should be compelled to use materials that will fully disintegrate.
No such regulation exists. In the United States, the Federal Communications Commission requires companies to report on the risk of casualties from falling satellites, but the agency mostly focuses on regulating radio frequencies.
The F.A.A., which oversees launches, proposed a rule to regulate the disposal of orbital debris but it withdrew the idea in January after the space industry pushed back.
