MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY WATCH - 28-31 MAY 2003
VALID BEGINNING AT: EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY
VALID UNTIL: 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) ON 31 MAY
HIGH RISK PERIOD: 30 MAY (UTC DAYS)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD: 28 - 31 MAY
PREDICTED ACTIVITY INDICES: 30, 30, 35, 20 (28 MAY - 31 MAY)
POTENTIAL MAGNITUDE OF MIDDLE LATITUDE AURORAL ACTIVITY: MODERATE - HIGH
POTENTIAL DURATION OF THIS ACTIVITY: MAIN BELT = 12 - 24 HOURS
MINOR BELT = 24 - 48 HOURS
ESTIMATED OPTIMUM OBSERVING CONDITIONS: NEAR LOCAL MIDNIGHT
EXPECTED LUNAR INTERFERENCE: NONE - LOW
OVERALL OPPORTUNITY FOR OBSERVATIONS FROM MIDDLE LATITUDES: FAIR
AURORAL ACTIVITY *MAY* BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
OREGON TO SOUTHERN IDAHO AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN UTAH TO WYOMING TO NORTHERN
NEBRASKA TO IOWA TO ILLINOIS TO INDIANA TO OHIO AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN
KENTUCKY AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA TO MARYLAND.
ACTIVITY *MAY* ALSO BE OBSERVED APPROXIMATELY NORTH OF A LINE FROM...
IRELAND TO SOUTHERN UNITED KINGDOM AND POSSIBLY NORTHERN FRANCE TO BELGIUM
TO THE NETHERLANDS TO THE NORTHERN THIRD OF GERMANY TO NORTHERN POLAND TO
NORTHERN BELARUS TO NORTH-CENTRAL RUSSIA.
NEW ZEALAND AND SOUTHEASTERN TO SOUTH-CENTRAL REGIONS OF AUSTRALIA ALSO
HAVE A FAIR CHANCE TO OBSERVE PERIODS OF ACTIVITY.
SYNOPSIS...
A series of solar coronal mass ejections are expected to impact the
Earth over the next 72 hours. The first disturbance may impact on 29 May and
produce enhanced levels of activity. The most disturbed interval is expected
on 30 May when effects of what may be a more energetic coronal mass ejection
are expected to reach the Earth. This latter disturbance is associated with
two major X-class solar flares and has the potential for producing periods of
moderate to strong auroral activity over the high and middle latitude
regions. The intensity of the activity probably will not be particularly
significant. However, since the potential for cannibalistic CME activity is
fairly high (a faster CME overtaking a slower CME), the level of
predictability is reduced. There is a chance some regions of this disturbance
may involve strongly enhanced magnetic fields capable of coupling more
strongly with the Earth's magnetosphere to produce strong auroral storm
activity. There is also the possibility periods of activity may be fairly
weak. Because of these uncertainties and the complex space weather situation
which is evolving from this (and other ambient) activity, this watch is based
on an optimistic projection favoring a slightly stronger disturbance than
would otherwise be expected. The near-new phase of the moon, which will
contribute to optimally dark skies will also enhance the potential for
observing activity from middle latitudes, particularly on 30 May.
There is a strong potential for additional major solar flare activity
from active solar Region 10365. Future activity from this region may involve
additional Earthward-directed coronal mass ejection activity that could serve
to prolong the duration of favorable conditions for middle latitude sightings
of auroral activity.
This watch will remain valid through 23:00 UTC (7 pm EDT) on
31 May. It will then be updated or allowed to expire. For updated
information, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/aurora/forum.html. For real-time
plots of current activity, visit:
http://www.spacew.com/plots.html
